Predestination or free will? Romans 9 vs Ezekiel 18

The passages

For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion. So then it is not of him that willeth, nor of him that runneth, but of God that sheweth mercy.

Romans 9:15-16

According as he hath chosen us in him before the foundation of the world, that we should be holy and without blame before him in love.

Ephesians 1:4

Have I any pleasure at all that the wicked should die? saith the Lord GOD: and not that he should return from his ways, and live?

Ezekiel 18:23

Who will have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth.

1 Timothy 2:4

The problem

Paul writes that God has mercy on whom he wills and hardens whom he wills (Romans 9:18), and that believers were chosen before the world began. Elsewhere the Bible says God desires all to be saved, calls people to repent, and holds them responsible. If God chooses in advance, it is hard to see how the call to repent is a real invitation to everyone. If people can choose, it is hard to see how God chose first.

What believers and scholars say

Calvinist reading. Calvin and the Synod of Dort taught that God elects some to salvation unconditionally, that grace is irresistible, and that the "all" in 1 Timothy 2:4 means all kinds of people. They hold that Romans 9 plainly teaches this, and that human responsibility is not diminished.

Arminian reading. Arminius and Wesley taught that God's election is based on his foreknowledge of who would believe, or that it is corporate, and that grace can be resisted. They read Romans 9 as concerning the roles of Israel and the nations in history, not individual salvation.

Romans 9 in context. Moo and Barclay both note that the chapter is concerned with the status of Israel and with God's freedom to act. Barclay argues that Paul stresses grace as unconditioned without ever explaining how it fits with human agency. The tension may be one the apostle never tried to resolve.

Mystery. Many Christians hold both truths together without a system, citing the biblical pattern of sovereignty and responsibility side by side (Philippians 2:12-13).

Where this leaves it

Churches have divided over this for four hundred years and more. Each side has texts it can read plainly and texts it must interpret. The disagreement may say as much about what kind of coherence readers expect from the Bible as about the Bible itself.